Naysay
The passage of digital adoption
An inbox designed for reading newsletters: Meco is a distraction-free space for reading newsletters outside the inbox. Become a more productive reader and focus on what matters to you - easy to try with a free version. Try today
Friends,
A recent survey supposedly highlights that AI is not being used by many. A recent report from the BBC highlights that only 2% use AI daily. Perceptively that might be true - and perhaps, many don’t realise that they are using AI - or that AI is being used in a product that they use.
I guess it depends on who you ask.
A Salesforce Survey from last year put the number that have used Gen AI at 29% in the UK, 45% in the US and an astonishing 73% in India. This is from a targeted subset.
The speed of adoption is actually phenomenal. It’s difficult to find an equivalent technology to aliken generative AI to. The closest is probably the Internet which reached 50% US penetration in 7 years. Given that access - and sometimes free availability - of generative AI is provided to many through the Internet, the speed of adoption will be faster. In 5 years from now, I’d bet that we will have more than 50% adoption in some way of form.
If you use Windows 11, you’ll see a small Microsoft Copilot logo, ready for you to use. If you buy a new Windows laptop, you’ll see the Windows button replaced with the “sparkle” AI logo. And every browser, search engine or tool will have AI built in.
The BBC article irked me, especially because it was based on a report from the Reuters Institute at the University of Oxford - and they imply that AI is just a flash in the pan. That’s just lazy and shoddy journalism by the BBC. OpenAI has 180M direct users. That’s more than 2% of the whole world. A proportion of the users are creating network effects through using OpenAI’s API to for their own products. And, if you have ever used an Amazon account (310M of you), you’ll see your AI summary on those review pages that you used to spend so much time on.
I read the report that the BBC cites - which is really about AI in the news. The most interesting part is this:
Younger people are much more likely to use generative AI products on a regular basis. Averaging across all six countries, 56% of 18–24s say they have used ChatGPT at least once, compared to 16% of those aged 55 and over.
This is very much a technology of now and the future. As it becomes easier to access, and goes beyond prompt engineering, we will see even more uptake. The BBC thinks all of this is low uptake - but we have only really had consumer access to generative AI for a year and a half.
Let’s compare other adoption cycles (US as an example):
Smartphones: 7 years to get to 50% (2014)
Internet: 7 years to get to 50% (2000)
Computers: 16 years to get to 50% (1997)
Electricity: 30 years to get to 50% (1930s)
If we believe that the AI is is another wave of digital adoption, and AI will ride on the coat tails and platforms of the other technologies, we will see mainstream adoption by 2030. It’s just about how quickly it will happen. With 56% of the leaders of tomorrow already using AI, this will faster that 7 years to 50% surpassing the adoption rates of both smartphones and tablets during similar post-launch periods - remembering that Chat GPT was the fastest new product launch to reach 1M users - in 5 days.
Just remember, this rapid adoption is driven by the low barrier to entry, as these tools are accessible on existing devices without the need for new hardware purchases.
If you still believe the BBC talking about AI being overhyped, I’ll point you to these stats:
McKinsey estimates that generative AI could contribute up to $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy. This potential economic impact underscores the transformative power of generative AI across various sectors, from healthcare to finance to retail
ChatGPT reached 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, demonstrating rapid consumer adoption and the high demand for AI-driven conversational tools.
Global spending on generative AI is projected to reach $110 billion in 2024, with the AI market potentially worth $190 billion by 2025. This substantial financial commitment underscores the confidence businesses have in the long-term value of generative AI technologies.
And I read this last week that 1 out of 3 marketing teams have implemented AI in their workflows. It’s happening. Don’t believe the headlines of the naysayers. And If you do, you’re part of the 2% that will change the world over the next 5 years.
I remember in the late 90s there was a phase where almost everyone I met asked me whether I had my website. I did. And it was somewhat basic. But I had plans on what we could do with the Internet.
It’s getting to the point where people are asking me what I use generative AI for at work. I tell them - and then I give some use cases of what we are doing (and planning to do) for teachers with Teachermatic and Avallain. And people can’t quite believe it.
It will be normal soon.
Stay Curious - and don’t forget to be amazing,
Here are my recommendations for this week:
Part of my workflow on consuming and learning information has been ramped up by AI tools. One that I’m using regularly is TubeonAI which creates summaries of videos and podcasts in seconds. If you need to up your lifelong learning to stay ahead of the game, sign up for free and then use code BOXOFAMAZING for a premium discount) Sign up
Now
OpenAI has a has a new version of ChatGPT just for universities: ChatGPT Edu is designed for universities interested in using AI on campus. What next for higher education? US higher education has become hyperpartisan and suffers from grade inflation, both of which have undermined academic rigour and ideological diversity. Throw OpenAI into the mix or a world where AI exists, and who knows what will happen next? Related: OpenAI Is Rebooting Its Robotics Team and Will Scaling Solve Robotics? Also. A Devil’s Bargain With OpenAI
'Cautious optimism': Here's what chief economists think about the state of the global economy: The global economy's near-term outlook is improving with a shift towards cautious optimism, as seen in the May 2024 Chief Economists Outlook from the World Economic Forum. Despite remaining uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the majority of economists surveyed anticipate global growth to reach 4% in the next five years. Factors such as international geopolitics and domestic politics are expected to contribute to economic volatility, while different regions show varying economic growth prospects. Long-term forecasts suggest a potential sustained rebound in growth, with technological advancements and the green transition playing key roles in fostering economic development. Policymakers are advised to focus on innovation, infrastructure development, education, and monetary policy to boost growth in the coming years. Related: Why prediction markets aren’t popular
22 Experts Predict What the Trump Conviction Will Mean for 2024 and Beyond
Historians and political analysts weigh in on the fallout of a first-ever conviction of a former (and possibly future) president.
Would You Waste Less of Your Life Online If You Got Daily ‘Attention Receipts’?: The experiment found that "the materiality of the receipt improves reflection and therefore influences the quality and quantity of time spent on YouTube."
The big lie about sleep: When it comes to slumber, what matters most is how rich you are: While different people tend to feel more alert at different times of day, the science is clear: Everyone needs at least seven to nine hours of sleep each night in order to function properly. Teenagers need a full eight to 10 hours. And there is emerging evidence that women, who historically have been largely excluded from sleep studies, need more rest than men. When we don't get enough sleep, it can influence everything from how much money we make to our likelihood of developing dementia, heart disease, and diabetes.
Next
World-first tooth-regrowing drug will be given to humans in September: The world's first human trial of a drug that can regenerate teeth will begin in a few months, less than a year on from news of its success in animals. This paves the way for the medicine to be commercially available as early as 2030. End of dentures?
The Danger Of Superhuman AI Is Not What You Think: The rhetoric over “superhuman” AI implicitly erases what’s most important about being human. Generative AI are often touted as signaling the advent of "superhuman" artificial intelligence, but this framing promotes a harmful ideology that undermines human agency and autonomy. These AI tools, despite their impressive capabilities, lack fundamental human qualities such as consciousness, sentience, and the ability to experience emotions. The rhetoric of "superhuman" AI misleadingly equates computational speed and problem-solving with human intelligence, diminishing the rich, multifaceted nature of human cognition and creativity. This perspective risks reducing human intelligence to mere task optimization, ignoring the profound, qualitative aspects of human experience and potentially devaluing what it means to be human. I’m bullish on AI, but I’m also bullish on the uniqueness of humans and humanity. We will leverage AI in the right way to progress the world. I hope. Related: How Anthropic Designed Itself to Avoid OpenAI’s Mistakes Also: How A.I. Made Mark Zuckerberg Popular Again in Silicon Valley
‘Smart’ antibiotic can kill deadly bacteria while sparing the microbiome: Compound called lolamicin targets a group of harmful microbes but does not disturb those that live peacefully in the gut.
Google just updated its algorithm. The Internet will never be the same: Follow up from last week….Over the past two years, Google's significant updates to its search algorithms, including the introduction of AI-generated "AI Overviews," have sparked controversy. These changes, intended to improve search results and reduce spam, have drastically affected independent websites like HouseFresh, which experienced severe traffic declines despite adhering to Google's best practices. Google's emphasis on AI-generated content and favouritism towards established brands have marginalized smaller publishers, potentially leading to their demise. As Google transitions to a more generative AI-based search model, the debate continues over whether it will save the web by enhancing user experience or destroy it by undermining independent content creators.
The future of foundation models is closed-source: if the centralizing forces of data and compute hold, open and closed-source AI cannot both dominate long-term
Free your newsletters from the inbox: Meco is a distraction-free space for reading newsletters outside the inbox. The app has features designed to supercharge your learnings from your favourite writers. Become a more productive reader and cut out the noise with Meco - try the app today
If you enjoyed this edition of Box of Amazing, please share and help me grow this group. If you share it on LinkedIn, please tag me so I can thank you.
If you are interested in advertising in this newsletter, please see this link